The Iranian economy has proven to be more resilient than expected, despite US President Donald Trump’s claims that it would collapse under the sanctions. Experts believe that Iran has the economic and military capabilities to withstand the US naval blockade for a considerable period. The US imposed sanctions on Iranian ports on April 13, restricting Iranian ships in the Gulf and seizing some of them, which Iran has termed as an illegal and piratical act. In response, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to foreign ships and detained several foreign vessels.
Experts predict that Iran’s exports will be affected due to the sanctions, as it relies heavily on oil and gas exports. However, surprising data shows that Iran’s oil revenue has increased by 40% in the last month, reaching over $4.9 billion. This is despite the fact that Iran relies heavily on its oil exports, which account for approximately 1.7-1.8 million barrels per day, with oil prices ranging from $90 to $100 per barrel.
Iran’s oil tankers are believed to have a significant amount of oil stored on board, which could provide a financial cushion for several months. Estimates suggest that there are approximately 160-180 million barrels of oil on board various tankers waiting to reach the global market.
The US, however, may find it difficult to maintain the blockade for an extended period, as the US law limits the President’s ability to take such actions without Congressional approval. The international community, particularly China, is also applying pressure on the US to ease the sanctions.
Iran seems to be well-prepared for this situation, with alternative routes, reserves, and strategies in place. The country’s leadership is also showing unity in the face of this challenge. Iran has also taken steps to increase its revenue by imposing fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and engaging in unconventional tactics, such as cyber attacks and utilizing ally groups.
The US and Iran are reportedly engaged in secret talks, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claiming that US President Donald Trump has requested negotiations. The situation is likely to remain tense for an extended period, with experts predicting that Iran’s economy will be affected but not collapsing entirely.
