Experts at a leading defense strategy think tank have expressed concerns that the ceasefire between Pakistan and India remains fragile, suggesting that talks between the two South Asian rivals in a neutral or third-party country could be instrumental in restoring regional stability.
This discussion took place at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think tank, under the title “The India-Pakistan military conflict and prospects for regional stability and security.” The aim was to analyze the recent conflict between the two nations, the conflicting narratives, and its aftermath.
Following the Pahalgam attack on April 22, India initiated missile strikes in Pakistan on the night of May 6th and 7th. This led to a retaliatory response from Pakistan and subsequent exchanges of drone and missile strikes, along with shelling across the Line of Control (LoC) by both countries. The ceasefire was first announced by US President Donald Trump on May 10.
Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow and Head of the South and Central Asian Programme, observed a significant amount of misinformation and disinformation disseminated by both media and governments during the conflict, allowing both countries to declare victory and the successful achievement of their military objectives.
He stated, “The conflict has resulted in a hardening of both countries’ positions towards the other. India’s revised counter-terror doctrine, based on the next terror attack being an ‘act of war,’ has created a new spectrum for future conflicts of potentially deadly nature. Pakistan has described the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) as an ‘act of war’ to which it would respond ‘with full force across the complete spectrum of national power’; and has suspended the Simla Agreement that validates the LoC.”
Roy-Chaudhury further indicated that the promotion of Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir to Field Marshal signifies that he “has emerged stronger and more popular after the contrast.”
He added, “The regeneration of private and informal ‘track 1.5’ dialogues between Indian and Pakistani senior officials and influential experts held in third-party countries provide the best immediate prospect of a return to regional stability.”
IISS expert Desmond Bowen remarked that prior to April 22, 2025, South Asia appeared to be a beacon of tranquility compared to Europe, Africa, and East Asia. “This has now gone. The risk register of South Asia is back at the top of international concerns.” He elaborated, “This conflict was not a self-regulating outbreak of violence. There was a need for outside intervention, which came from the UK, France, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the US. Although this started with the Pahalgam, the follow-through came from both India and Pakistan. Both sides were willing to take risks in how they escalated the conflict.”
He emphasized that neither India nor Pakistan can afford a prolonged war or the continuation of a hot conflict. He noted that Pakistan faces serious economic challenges, and a major conflict is not conducive to India’s aspirations to lead in tech outsourcing and enhance its technical capabilities. He concluded that risks have escalated on both sides, and it has also become evident that the world is interested in the possibility and avoidance of nuclear war.
IISS expert Antoine Levesques highlighted that India and Pakistan have absorbed lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict regarding the use of drones and missiles, and the ability to leverage escalation as a defense mechanism. He underscored the significance of the National Command Authority meeting called by Pakistan on the night of Friday, May 9, which was later called off. “Regarding technology, there was the involvement of foreign tech, specifically Chinese versus Western origin defense technology. The misuse and misfiring are still not clear but will be important. There was no sign of joint command control with China, although there is some discussion on the use of satellite imagery,” he said.
IISS Viraj Solanki pointed out that the conflict has positioned India and the USA on opposing sides concerning the narratives surrounding the events. He mentioned that President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated in multiple speeches that the US mediated the ceasefire and has also spoken about mediating a resolution to the Kashmir dispute.
“This has also become a domestic political issue in India, including questions on whether India had accepted third-party mediation on Kashmir, which the government has rejected. Pakistan welcomed the US role in ‘facilitating the outcome’ of the ceasefire and mention of wider resolution of the Kashmir dispute, but objected to India’s version of events.”
