Pakistan’s economy has crossed a symbolic threshold, with nominal GDP surpassing $400 billion for the first time, according to provisional estimates approved by the National Accounts Committee (NAC). The committee projected GDP growth of 2.68% for the current fiscal year, elevating the economy’s size to Rs114.7 trillion (approximately $411 billion).
In his LinkedIn post, Sohail Mohammed, chief executive of brokerage firm Topline Securities, characterized this as a “notable recovery” amidst persistent macroeconomic headwinds. He highlighted that nominal GDP in US dollar terms has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3% over the past five years.
The government has set a long-term goal of becoming a $1 trillion economy by FY2035—a target Mohammed asserts will necessitate “sustained structural reforms, political stability, and disciplined external account management.”
National accounts data, released on Tuesday, indicates the economy expanded from Rs105.1 trillion in FY24 to Rs114.7 trillion in FY25—equivalent to a rise from $372 billion to $411 billion. Quarterly growth estimates were also revised upward, with GDP increasing by 1.37% in Q1 and 1.53% in Q2.
Despite this improvement, the FY25 growth estimate falls short of the government’s initial 3.6% target. Topline Securities estimates average quarterly growth for the first nine months at approximately 1.8%. Sector-level data reveal mixed performance: agriculture grew 1.18% in Q3 despite a downturn in key crops, while industrial output contracted 1.14% due to declines in mining, quarrying, and large-scale manufacturing.
To support the recovery, the State Bank of Pakistan lowered its policy rate by 100 basis points to 11% this month. The easing cycle resumed after a brief pause in March, with the central bank citing a more favorable inflation outlook.
Topline expects full-year GDP growth to range between 2.5% and 3.0%, with agriculture expanding by 1.8%, industry by 1.0%, and services by 3.4%. Meanwhile, the IMF recently trimmed its own forecast for Pakistan’s FY25 GDP growth to 2.6%, down from a previous estimate of 3.2%.
Signs of softening demand in manufacturing also emerged, with the HBL Pakistan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) easing to 51.9 in April from 52.7 the previous month, reflecting broader uncertainty over global trade conditions.
