ISLAMABAD, Pakistan – May 20, 2025 – The National Accounts Committee (NAC) announced on Tuesday that Pakistan’s economy grew by 2.4% in the third quarter of the fiscal year ending in June, while also revising upwards the growth prospects for the current fiscal year.
In a statement, the committee approved a projection of 2.68% provisional growth in GDP for FY25, which would bring the size of Pakistan’s economy to an estimated $410.96 billion.
Brokerage firm Topline Securities, in a note, indicated that the average quarterly growth for the first nine months of FY25 (9MFY25) was estimated at approximately 1.8%. The government’s provisional growth figure of 2.68% for the full FY25 is lower than the targeted growth of 3.6%.
Earlier this month, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reduced its key policy rate by 100 basis points to 11%. This decision was attributed to an improved inflation outlook and marked the resumption of a series of rate cuts from a record high of 22%, following a brief pause in March, aimed at supporting economic growth.
The latest national accounts aggregates for FY25 show the economy’s size at Rs114.7 trillion ($410.96 billion), an increase from Rs105.1 trillion ($371.66 billion) in the previous period, the committee stated.
Growth in the agriculture sector registered 1.18% in Q3, despite a decline in important crops. Conversely, the industrial sector contracted by 1.14%, adversely affected by negative growth in mining and quarrying and large-scale manufacturing.
The committee also approved Pakistan’s revised GDP growth figures for the first quarter at 1.37% and the second quarter at 1.53%.
Manufacturing sector growth experienced a slowdown to a seven-month low in April, with the HBL Pakistan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) easing to 51.9 from 52.7 in March, primarily weighed down by concerns over global trade.
Topline Securities remarked that the NAC figures were in line with their expectations. “We expect Pakistan’s full-year GDP to grow at 2.5-3.0% in FY25, wherein we anticipate the agriculture sector to grow at 1.8%, followed by the industrial sector at 1.0% and services at 3.4%.”
It should be noted that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in a recent report, revised down Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast from 3.2% to 2.6%, as reported by the brokerage.
