Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday, bringing trade concessions, business deals, and cooperation on China to secure Trump’s favor.
Trump, less than a month into his presidency, has used tariff threats against allies and adversaries alike to extract new trade agreements, investments, or law enforcement support.
India might not be an exception. While Trump had a warm relationship with Modi in his first term, he has also labeled India a “very big abuser” in trade, and his tariffs on steel and aluminum severely impacted India.
Ahead of his White House meeting, Modi has prepared promises including increased purchases of liquefied natural gas, combat vehicles, and jet engines, according to unnamed Indian government officials.
Indian officials are also considering trade talks, U.S. agricultural export deals, nuclear energy investments, and tariff cuts in over a dozen sectors, including electronics, medical equipment, and chemicals.
These are areas where Trump’s administration believes India needs to improve, according to a source familiar with their stance.
“It’s a gift for Trump,” said one source, previewing the private meeting.
Modi also seeks assistance regarding billionaire Gautam Adani, a close ally who was indicted by the U.S. Justice Department in November over an alleged bribery scheme. Adani has denied any wrongdoing.
Another sensitive issue in the background is the alleged Indian intelligence plot to assassinate a Sikh activist in the U.S. during Joe Biden’s administration.
This time, tariffs will be the central issue, said Richard Rossow, head of the India program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“It’s going to be a boxing match,” he said. “India may take a few hits, but there’s a limit.”
The U.S. has a $45.6 billion trade deficit with India. According to WTO data, the U.S. trade-weighted tariff rate is about 2.2%, compared to India’s 12%.
What Trump Wants
Trump seeks more Indian assistance on illegal immigration, as India is a major source of immigrants to the U.S., including tech workers and undocumented individuals.
Modi is also expected to meet with Elon Musk in Washington, according to two sources. Musk, a Trump ally, may discuss Starlink’s entry into the South Asian market.
India plays a crucial role in Trump’s strategy to counter China, but it also maintains a “strategic ambiguity” policy to avoid direct confrontation.
Meanwhile, Trump’s recent talks with Putin and Zelensky indicate potential international pressure on India regarding the Ukraine war.
