LAHORE, PAKISTAN—As surveys to assess the devastating losses from recent floods continue, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has issued a new alert for more rain across Punjab in the coming days, compounding the challenges faced by both authorities and millions of affected residents. PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia delivered the warning during a media briefing in Lahore on Saturday.
The scale of the disaster is vast: monsoon rains across Pakistan since June have claimed at least 1,037 lives, severely swelling major rivers and wreaking havoc on rural communities. In Punjab alone, over 4.7 million people across 4,700 villages have been impacted, according to the PDMA.
Addressing the media, DG Kathia detailed that showers are expected to commence early tomorrow morning across Punjab, persisting until October 7 (Tuesday) in the northern parts. He warned that the intensity would surge on October 6 and 7, with 50 to 70mm of rain anticipated in northern and northeastern Punjab, extending into central districts.
Cross-Border Water Surge Feared
The shift in weather is already impacting river flows, with the Chenab river recording inflows of 20,000 cusecs at Head Marala. However, DG Kathia cited “unofficial Indian sources” detailing a potential surge that introduces a worrying variable. He indicated that in the next 48 hours, inflows could dramatically increase to between 100,000 and 150,000 cusecs. This surge is attributed to rainfall and silt flushing at the Dul Hasti hydropower project, located 210 kilometres upstream in Indian-administered Kashmir. Such a spike could rapidly exacerbate the flood situation in downstream areas.
The Intricate Path to Compensation
The PDMA chief confirmed that detailed loss and damage assessments are underway across 27 flood-affected districts following the breaching of the Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej rivers. The human toll is stark: while 2.63 million people and 2.11 million livestock were evacuated to safety, the confirmed death toll has reached 134, a figure that may climb as the full-scale survey, only initiated in late September, concludes.
DG Kathia stated that the survey, which began on September 27, is expected to be completed within a month, covering 69 tehsils. He highlighted the magnitude of the effort: “On the directives of Punjab’s chief minister, 11,500 survey workers across 27 districts are on the field, with 2,213 teams in total,” including the Pakistan Army, Urban Unit, and representatives from agriculture and livestock departments, all working to ensure transparent enumeration.
However, a core challenge remains: the teams continue to face significant difficulties reaching areas still inundated with water.
To ensure aid reaches the genuine victims, the PDMA has established an intricate, multi-layered verification process. Once data is gathered, it passes through the Provincial Emergency Operation Centre (PEOC) and is cross-checked against records from NADRA (for CNIC authentication), the Punjab Land Record Authority (PLRA) (to verify ownership), and is subject to internal validation by the Punjab Information Technology Board (PITB). Only after this rigorous scrutiny is the verified information forwarded to the Bank of Punjab (BOP), where counters will be set up and beneficiaries will be notified via message of the date and centre for their compensation collection.
