Iranian and US negotiators are set to reconvene talks in Rome on Friday, aiming to resolve a decades-long dispute concerning Iran’s nuclear ambitions. This comes despite a warning from Tehran’s supreme leader that forging a new agreement might prove insuperable given the clashing “red lines” of both sides.
The stakes are considerable for both parties. President Donald Trump’s objective is to curb Tehran’s potential to develop a nuclear weapon, a development that could trigger a regional nuclear arms race. For its part, the Islamic Republic seeks the lifting of severe sanctions that have crippled its oil-dependent economy.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, will engage in a fifth round of discussions facilitated by Omani mediators. This round proceeds despite both Washington and Tehran publicly adopting firm stances regarding Iran’s uranium enrichment activities. While Iran insists the talks are indirect, US officials have characterized the discussions – including the previous round on May 11 in Oman – as both “direct and indirect.”
Upon his arrival in Rome with his two deputies, Araqchi posted on X: “…Zero nuclear weapons = we Do have a deal. Zero enrichment = we do NOT have a deal. Time to decide.” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt informed reporters on Thursday that Trump believes negotiations with Iran are “moving in the right direction.”
Both Tehran and Washington have expressed a preference for diplomatic solutions to the impasse but remain deeply divided on several critical “red lines.” Negotiators will need to navigate these contentious points to reach a new nuclear agreement and avert potential future military action.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Tuesday that Washington is striving for an accord that would permit Iran to operate a civil nuclear energy program but prohibit uranium enrichment. He conceded, however, that achieving such a deal “will not be easy.” Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority over Iran’s state affairs, has rejected Washington’s demands for Tehran to cease uranium refining as “excessive and outrageous,” cautioning that the talks are unlikely to yield favorable results.
Among the persistent sticking points are Tehran’s refusal to export its entire stockpile of highly enriched uranium – a potential raw material for nuclear bombs – or to engage in discussions regarding its ballistic missile program. Iran maintains that its enrichment activities are solely for civilian nuclear energy purposes and states its readiness to accept certain limitations on enrichment, but it demands ironclad guarantees that Washington will not abandon a future nuclear accord.
Trump, who reinstated a “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran in February, withdrew from the 2015 nuclear pact in 2018 during his first term and reimposed sweeping US sanctions that continue to impede the Iranian economy. Iran retaliated by escalating its enrichment beyond the limits stipulated in the 2015 agreement.
Wendy Sherman, a former US Undersecretary for Political Affairs who led the US negotiating team that brokered the 2015 agreement, noted that convincing Iran to dismantle its enrichment program was impossible – a program Tehran regards as a matter of national sovereignty. She told Reuters, “I don’t think it is possible to get a deal with Iran where they literally dismantle their programme, give up their enrichment, even though that would be ideal.”
The consequences of a breakdown in talks could be severe. While Tehran asserts its nuclear activities are peaceful, Israel, Iran’s staunch adversary, rejects this claim, affirming it would never allow Iran’s clerical establishment to acquire nuclear weapons.
A source familiar with the matter informed Reuters that Israel’s strategic affairs minister and the head of its foreign intelligence service, Mossad, will also be in Rome for discussions with the US team negotiating with Iran. Araqchi stated on Thursday that Washington would bear legal responsibility if Israel attacked Iranian nuclear installations, following a CNN report suggesting Israel might be preparing for strikes.
While escalating US-Iran tensions over enrichment have cast doubt on the nuclear talks, three Iranian sources indicated on Tuesday that the clerical leadership lacks a clear contingency plan if efforts to overcome the standoff collapse.
