In Punjab, often called India’s granary, the damage is unprecedented: floods have inundated farmlands nearly the size of London and New York City combined.
During a recent visit to the state, India’s agriculture minister stated, “the crops have been destroyed and ruined,” while the Chief Minister of Indian Punjab called the deluge “one of the worst flood disasters in decades.” Old-timers agree. “The last time we saw such an all-consuming flood was in 1988,” said 70-year-old Balkar Singh in the village of Shehzada, 30km north of Amritsar. The gushing water has turned Singh’s paddy field into a marshland and caused ominous cracks in the walls of his house.
Climate Change and Its Impact Floods and landslides are common during the June-September monsoon season in the subcontinent, but experts say climate change, coupled with poorly planned development, is increasing their frequency, severity, and impact. According to the national weather department, Punjab saw rainfall surge by almost two-thirds compared with the average rate for August, killing at least 52 people and affecting over 400,000.
’10 Feet High’ Water The village of Toor is in tatters—littered with collapsing crops, livestock carcasses, and destroyed homes. Farmworker Surjan Lal recalled, “The water came past midnight on August 26.” He said it “rose up to at least 10 feet (three meters) in a matter of minutes.” Lal added that the village, located in Punjab’s worst-affected Gurdaspur district, was marooned for nearly a week.
Uncertain Future for Farmers and Laborers In the adjacent village of Lassia, the last Indian village before the frontier, farmer Rakesh Kumar is counting his losses. “In addition to the land I own, I had taken some more on lease this year,” the 37-year-old said. “All my investment has just gone down the drain.” To make matters worse, Kumar fears his fields will not be ready in time to sow wheat, the winter crop of choice in Punjab.
For landless laborers like 50-year-old Mandeep Kaur, the uncertainty is even greater. “We used to earn a living by working in the big landlords’ fields but now they are all gone,” said Kaur. Her house was washed away, forcing her to sleep in the courtyard under a tarpaulin sheet—an arrangement fraught with danger from snakes that slither all over the damp land.
Basmati Production Affected Punjab is the largest supplier of rice and wheat to India’s food security program, which provides subsidized grain to over 800 million people. Analysts say this year’s losses are unlikely to threaten domestic supplies due to large buffer stocks, but exports of premium basmati rice are expected to suffer.
“The main effect will be on basmati rice production, prices, and exports because of lower output in Indian and Pakistan Punjab,” said Avinash Kishore of the International Food Policy Research Institute in New Delhi.
