Authorities have warned of a high flood in River Ravi at Shahdara tonight (Wednesday) as Punjab faces an “exceptionally high” risk of flooding due to a combination of heavy rainfall and excess water released from Indian dams.
According to the National Emergencies Operation Centre (NEOC), a high flood of 202,200 cusecs is currently passing through the Ravi at Jassar, which could increase to 229,700 cusecs. At Shahdara in Lahore, the river is currently flowing at 72,900 cusecs, posing a risk to low-lying areas, including Shahdara, Park View, and Motorway-2.
The peak flow is expected to reach Shahdara between 10pm and 12am before moving towards Balloki around 9am on Wednesday.
In the meantime, the Indus Water Commissioner’s office has issued a flood alert based on data shared by the Indian High Commission. The warning indicates a high flood is anticipated in the Sutlej at Ferozepur (downstream), the Ravi at Madhopur (downstream), and the Chenab at Akhnoor.
Separately, the NEOC reported an extremely high flood in the Sutlej, with 245,000 cusecs recorded at Ganda Singh Wala and 100,355 cusecs at Sulemanki. In the Chenab, an unusually high discharge of 769,481 cusecs was measured at Marala, with 705,225 cusecs recorded at Khanki. Officials noted that the flows at Khanki have begun to decrease.
The NEOC stated that the sudden increase in water levels in the Ravi and Chenab over the last 24 hours had presented a major challenge, but precautionary evacuations were already underway. According to the Punjab Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), between 20,000 and 25,000 people have been relocated from the floodplains of the two rivers.
Following directives from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) is overseeing all rescue and relief operations. The NEOC said its control room is fully operational round the clock, while the NDMA remains in close contact with civil and military agencies. Residents living along riverbanks and waterways have been urged to move to safer locations immediately, as rescue and relief teams remain on standby.
Water Levels in Punjab Rivers Expected to Recede
Earlier in the day, PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia said that water levels in Punjab’s major rivers were expected to start receding as rainfall has paused in the upper catchment areas. He stated that this easing trend follows days of heavy flows, particularly in the Sutlej, Ravi, and Chenab rivers.
Addressing a press conference in Lahore, Kathia noted that the Sutlej had been in a “high flood” situation for five to ten days, but the flow at Ganda Singh was now steady at 245,000 cusecs and no longer rising.
In response to the situation, floodplains along the Sutlej, Ravi, and Chenab rivers have been evacuated. Kathia confirmed that between 20,000 and 25,000 people were moved to safety from the Ravi and Chenab floodplains last night.
The PDMA chief said that one of the primary challenges is River Ravi, where the flow at Jassar had risen to over 200,000 cusecs, causing the predicted surge at Shahdara tonight, before it moves toward Balloki around 9am on Wednesday.
“The Ravi has a capacity of 250,000 cusecs at Shahdara. We expect the flow to remain between 180,000 and 190,000 cusecs, which can easily pass through,” he said. The last surge of this magnitude was recorded in 1988, when the river swelled to 346,500 cusecs.
Kathia said the sudden increase in water levels in the Ravi and Chenab yesterday had posed a serious challenge, but evacuation efforts had been completed. “We are confident the water will pass safely through Shahdara, and there will be no casualties,” he added. He appealed to the public to avoid the floodplains, assuring that all rescue and relief teams remain on standby.
