Germans head to the polls on Sunday in two eastern states, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) poised to achieve a historic victory. Polls indicate that the AfD is leading in Thuringia with 30% and is neck-and-neck with the conservatives in Saxony, where they are polling at 30-32%. A win would mark the first time a far-right party has topped a German state parliament since World War II.
Despite the AfD’s strong showing, the party is unlikely to form a state government as it is projected to fall short of a majority and other parties have refused to collaborate with it. However, a strong performance by the AfD and the newly-formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) could complicate coalition-building efforts.
Both the AfD and the BSW share anti-migration, eurosceptic, and Russia-friendly stances and have gained traction in the former Communist-run East, where concerns about the cost of living, the Ukraine war, and immigration are prevalent. Recent events, including a deadly stabbing spree linked to Islamic State, have heightened fears about immigration.
AfD leader Bjoern Hoecke, a controversial figure known for his polarizing views, has criticized the government’s handling of immigration, fueling further discontent. Hoecke has previously made inflammatory statements, including calling Berlin’s Holocaust memorial a “monument of shame” and being convicted for using a Nazi slogan.
Scholz’s coalition, comprised of the Greens, Free Democrats, and Social Democrats, is expected to suffer losses in these state elections. The coalition’s internal strife and lackluster performance could exacerbate tensions in Berlin.
The BSW, which combines socially conservative and economically left-wing positions, has surged in popularity since its formation in January. The party is forecasted to win 12-20% of the vote, potentially positioning it as a kingmaker in both states. The BSW’s foreign policy stance, particularly its opposition to continued arms deliveries to Ukraine, has resonated with voters.
Together, the AfD and BSW are projected to garner 40-50% of the vote in the two states, highlighting the ongoing divide between East and West Germany. Despite recent investments aimed at bridging economic gaps, regional discontent remains significant.
