Key Findings and Projections
- Indo-Pakistan Border: While small-scale summer breeding may persist in October, it is expected to end in November as conditions become drier. However, the spring breeding areas along the southeastern coasts of Iran and southwestern Pakistan are projected to receive above-normal to normal rainfall in February and March, which could lead to renewed breeding activity.
- Northern Sahel and Sudan: Locust breeding will continue in these regions through early October. It is then expected to decrease in November before possibly intensifying again from December to March, aligning with a forecast of normal rainfall in January.
- Drying Trends: A widespread drying trend is anticipated across most regions in October and November. This is attributed to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate phenomenon that causes cooler sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean and warmer temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to less rainfall in many areas.
