Islamabad: The Ministry of Finance reported on Tuesday that the inflation rate is projected to be between 1 and 1.5 percent in March—the lowest in years—before slightly increasing to 3 percent in April.
“Inflation is anticipated to remain within the range of 1-1.5 percent for March 2025 and inching up to 2-3 percent in April 2025,” stated the Finance Ministry in its Monthly Economic Update & Outlook (March 2025).
The ministry also highlighted the central bank’s revised monetary policy, which is expected to contribute to stabilizing prices and supporting economic growth in the coming months. The report attributed the low inflation rate in March to several factors, including a decrease in food prices, improved supply chains, and a relatively stable exchange rate. Additionally, the government’s fiscal policies, aimed at controlling inflationary pressures, have also played a role in keeping prices under control.
According to the Finance Ministry’s update, the expected rise in inflation in April is primarily due to the base effect and seasonal factors, which typically cause slight increases in the prices of certain goods and services. However, the ministry emphasized that the overall inflation trajectory is expected to remain manageable in the near term.
The report also provided an outlook for the broader economy, noting that Pakistan’s GDP growth is projected to recover in the second half of the fiscal year. The government’s ongoing efforts to stabilize the economy, including fiscal discipline and targeted economic reforms, are expected to support growth despite global economic challenges.
The central bank’s revised monetary policy, along with ongoing structural reforms, is aimed at addressing inflationary pressures while supporting economic stability. The Finance Ministry’s update concludes that the government’s focus on managing inflation and supporting economic recovery remains a priority in the coming months.
Experts have welcomed the report’s optimistic outlook, but some have cautioned that the country must remain vigilant about potential external factors, such as global commodity price fluctuations, which could impact inflation rates in the second half of the year. Despite these challenges, the government’s commitment to maintaining a stable economic environment is expected to help mitigate the impact of external shocks.
In addition, the Finance Ministry has reassured that it will continue monitoring key economic indicators and adjust its policies accordingly to ensure that inflation remains under control while striving for sustainable economic growth. The continued stabilization of the Pakistani economy is viewed as crucial for improving living standards and supporting long-term development.
