Global temperatures remained stubbornly close to record highs in April, the EU’s climate monitor reported on Thursday, extending an unprecedented streak of heat and intensifying concerns about the pace of global warming.
The extraordinary heat spell, initially expected to wane as warmer El Nino conditions subsided last year, has defied predictions, with temperatures persistently hovering at or near record levels well into the current year.
“And then comes 2025, when we should be settling back, and instead we are remaining at this accelerated step-change in warming,” observed Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
He expressed his concern to AFP, stating, “And we seem to be stuck there. What this is caused by — what is explaining it — is not entirely resolved, but it’s a very worrying sign.”
In its latest bulletin, the Copernicus Climate Change Service revealed that April was the second-hottest in its comprehensive dataset, which draws upon billions of measurements gathered from satellites, ships, aircraft, and weather stations.
Alarmingly, all but one of the past 22 months have exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the critical warming limit enshrined in the Paris agreement, beyond which significant and irreversible climate and environmental changes become increasingly probable.
Missed Target
Many scientists now believe that this crucial target is no longer achievable and will be surpassed within the next few years.
A substantial study involving numerous prominent climate scientists, currently undergoing peer review, recently concluded that global warming reached 1.36°C in 2024.
Copernicus places the current figure at 1.39°C and projects that the 1.5°C threshold could be reached by mid-2029 or even sooner, based on the warming trend observed over the last 30 years.
“Now it’s in four years’ time. The reality is we will exceed 1.5 degrees,” stated Samantha Burgess of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the organization that operates Copernicus.
“The critical thing is to then not latch onto two degrees, but to focus on 1.51,” the climate scientist emphasized to AFP.
Julien Cattiaux, a climate scientist at the French research institute CNRS, predicted that the 1.5°C mark “would be beaten before 2030” but cautioned against interpreting this as a reason for inaction.
“It’s true that the figures we’re giving are alarming: the current rate of warming is high. They say every 10th of a degree counts, but right now, they’re passing quickly,” he told AFP.
“Despite everything, we mustn’t let that hinder action.”
‘Exceptional’
Scientists overwhelmingly agree that the burning of fossil fuels is the primary driver of long-term global warming, which has intensified and increased the frequency of extreme weather disasters.
However, they are less certain about the other factors that might be contributing to this persistent heat event.
Experts suggest that alterations in global cloud patterns, airborne pollution levels, and Earth’s capacity to store carbon in natural sinks such as forests and oceans could also be playing a role in the planet’s overheating.
This surge in temperatures propelled 2023 and then 2024 to become the hottest years on record, with 2025 now projected to be the third warmest.
“The last two years… have been exceptional,” noted Burgess.
“They’re still within the boundary — or the envelope — of what climate models predicted we could be in right now. But we’re at the upper end of that envelope.”
She added, “The current rate of warming has accelerated, but whether that’s true over the long term, I’m not comfortable saying that,” emphasizing the need for more data.
Copernicus records date back to 1940, but other sources of climate data — including ice cores, tree rings, and coral skeletons — enable scientists to extend their conclusions using evidence from much further into the past.
Scientists indicate that the current period is likely the warmest the Earth has experienced in the last 125,000 years.
