According to a new report released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Wednesday, artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to boost the value of global trade in goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040. However, the report also warned that without the right policies, AI could significantly deepen existing economic divides.
The WTO’s ‘World Trade Report’ projects that lower trade costs and increased productivity, both driven by AI, could lead to a substantial rise in trade and global GDP by 2040. The report forecasts that global trade could increase by 34-37% under various scenarios, while global GDP could see a rise of 12-13%.
Johanna Hill, the Deputy Director General of the WTO, commented that “AI could be a bright spot for trade in an increasingly complex trading environment.” She noted that AI is reshaping the global economy and international trade with the potential to reduce trade costs and enhance productivity.
The report highlighted several ways businesses could cut costs, including in logistics, regulatory compliance, and communication. “AI-driven translation technologies can make communication faster and more cost-effective, particularly benefiting small producers and retailers by enabling them to expand into global markets,” the report stated. These advancements could help boost export growth in low-income countries by as much as 11%, provided they improve their digital infrastructure.
However, the report cautioned that a lack of targeted investment and inclusive policies could exacerbate existing disparities. “The effects of the development and deployment of AI are raising concerns that many workers, and even entire economies, could be left behind,” the report said.
During the report’s launch in Geneva, WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stressed that policymakers need to carefully manage the transition to AI. “AI could upend labor markets, transforming some jobs whilst displacing others. Managing these shifts demands investment in domestic policies to enhance education, skills, retraining and social safety nets,” she said. To ensure the widespread benefits of AI are shared, the WTO added that predictable trade supported by its rules and lower tariffs on essential raw materials for AI technologies, such as semiconductors, are critical.
