The status of the $2 trillion investment vehicle as “non-political” was, until recently, a core principle of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund—the largest in the world—which was established in the early 1990s to manage surplus revenue from North Sea oil sales.
The current question is how this controversy will affect the ballot box and whether the threats of U.S. retaliation will lead to concrete action.
How Do Norway’s General Elections Work?
Norway operates on a system of proportional representation, where 169 politicians are elected to the national legislature, the Storting, for a four-year term. Of these, 150 are allocated to 19 regional districts based on population, with seats distributed proportionally among the parties.
To balance local and national representation, 19 additional seats are awarded to parties whose nationwide vote is not fully reflected in the district results. However, to qualify for these seats, a party must secure at least 4 percent of the national vote.
Looking ahead to September 8, polls indicate that nine parties are expected to win seats: Labour, the Socialists, the Greens, Centre, and the Reds on the left; and the Conservatives, Progress, the Christian Democrats, and the Liberals on the right.
If the center-left coalition wins, Labour’s Jonas Gahr Stoere is expected to remain in office. Stoere is seeking to extend his tenure after assuming power in 2021, following eight years of Conservative-led governments.
Conversely, a center-right victory could open the door for either Progress Party leader Sylvi Listhaug or Conservative Party head Erna Solberg (who served as prime minister from 2013 to 2021) to lead the next government.
While Labour generally favors stable taxes, some of its allies advocate for steeper rates for the wealthy to fund tax cuts for low-income families and expanded public services. Both the Progress and Conservative parties advocate for large tax cuts.
When Does Voting Begin and When Will the Results Be Known?
According to the Norwegian Directorate of Elections, early voting began on July 1 and continued until September 5.
Election day is September 8, though some municipalities allowed voters to cast their ballots on September 7.
Voting concludes on September 8 at 19:00 GMT, at which point the first exit polls are expected. While results may become clearer later in the evening, the final outcome might not be known until the following day.
What Do Opinion Polls Suggest?
No single party is expected to win an outright majority, and the specific combination of parties in the cabinet will likely be determined by post-election negotiations.
An average of polls conducted by pollofpolls.no earlier this week suggests that the center-left parties—Labour, the Socialist Left, the Communists, the Centre Party, and the Greens—are currently projected to win 87 seats.
If these polls are accurate and these parties form a coalition, a continued minority government under Labour is the most probable outcome.
Why Have Israel and Gaza Become Central Issues?
Norway’s $2 trillion wealth fund, built on vast oil reserves, allows the government to spend more freely than its European counterparts.
The fund is the single largest institutional investor globally. It primarily invests in stock markets, holding stakes in approximately 9,000 companies and owning about 1.5 percent of all listed shares worldwide. It also invests in real estate and renewable energy infrastructure.
However, a debate over the fund’s investments in Israel took center stage at the beginning of the campaign.
The Socialist Left party stated it would only support a future Labour government if it divested from all companies involved in what it called “Israel’s illegal warfare in Gaza.” Labour rejected this demand, but it may be difficult to refuse such calls if the election results are close.
As of June 30, 2025, the sovereign fund was invested in 61 companies in Israel, with a total investment value of $2.2 billion, according to the fund. This represented 0.1 percent of its total global investments.
Since then, the fund has divested from at least 11 companies following media reports that it owned a stake in a jet engine company that provides maintenance for Israeli fighter jets. Prior to that, the fund had only divested from two Israeli companies.
More divestments are expected in the future, as stated by Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg—a former NATO chief—on August 18. Advocates for divestment argue that Norway is contributing to the violation of international law by profiting from Israel’s war on Gaza.
What Are the Political Parties Saying About Israel-Linked Investments?
The fund adheres to ethical guidelines introduced in 2004 under Conservative Finance Minister Per-Kristian Foss. These rules, among other things, stipulate that the fund cannot invest in companies involved in human rights abuses or conflict situations.
Conservative party leader Erna Solberg has maintained that keeping the fund’s investments politically impartial has been a long-standing priority. On August 6, she said, “Having this principle that investments are done without political influence has been important for us.”
Around the same time, the Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten reported that Norway’s sovereign wealth fund had more than quadrupled its investments in the Israeli jet engine parts manufacturer Bet Shemesh Engines between 2023 and 2024 to $15.2 million.
In response, Labour’s Stoere told NRK (Norway’s state broadcaster) that these findings were “disturbing.” He stated: “Norwegian funds should not be invested in companies that contribute to violations of international law and the horrific war we see in Gaza.”
Elsewhere, a U.S. State Department spokesman said on Wednesday that Washington was “very troubled” by the fund’s recent divestment from the American construction firm Caterpillar, adding that it was engaging directly with the Norwegian government on the issue.
On August 25, Norway’s wealth fund divested from Caterpillar on ethical grounds due to the use of the company’s products, particularly bulldozers, by Israeli authorities in Gaza and the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a U.S. President Donald Trump ally, has suggested that Washington should impose tariffs and visa revocations on Norway in response. He blasted the Norwegian government’s review of Israel-linked investments on social media, calling it “beyond offensive” and outright “BS.”
What Are Some of the Other Issues Shaping the Election?
Inequality is at the top of voters’ concerns, according to an August 7-13 survey by Response Analyse for the daily newspaper Aftenposten. This has replaced defense and national security, which slipped to sixth place since a similar poll in April.
The cost of living has been central to the election campaign, with food price inflation having climbed nearly 6 percent over the past year. The survey also showed that the economy, jobs, and taxes are high priorities for voters.
Polls also indicate that voters are becoming increasingly concerned about geopolitics, having grown more skeptical of the U.S. under Trump.
Norwegians have recently seen Denmark clash with the U.S. over Greenland, which Trump has said he wants to acquire, and they fear they may face similar headwinds.
