Pakistan is bracing for another wave of flash floods, with a new report from The News highlighting the country’s growing susceptibility to climate-driven disasters as floods sweep across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and now Punjab.
Following the devastating 2022 floods, which displaced millions and caused widespread damage, a Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) was conducted, estimating losses at $14.9 billion and recovery needs at $16.3 billion.
While donors pledged $10.9 billion at the 2023 Geneva conference, only around 20% has been mobilized in the three years since, leaving vital recovery and resilience-building efforts stalled.
The persistent images of submerged villages, ruined crops, and displaced families serve as a stark reminder of the immense cost of inaction and the increasing global urgency for climate justice and accountability.
The World Bank has estimated that Pakistan will require $348 billion over the next seven years to effectively address its climate and development challenges.
Three years after the catastrophic 2022 floods, Pakistan’s ambitious recovery and reconstruction agenda, grounded in the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) and the Resilient Recovery, Rehabilitation, and Reconstruction Framework (4RF), is facing significant setbacks.
Despite total recovery needs being estimated at $16.3 billion over a three- to five-year period, the actual financial progress stands at less than 20% of that target.
The PDNA, launched in October 2022, assessed economic damages and losses at $14.9 billion and $15.2 billion, respectively, across 17 sectors. These assessments were integrated into the four Strategic Recovery Objectives (SROs) of the 4RF.
The 4RF formed the cornerstone of Pakistan’s appeal to international donors at the Geneva Conference in January 2023, which resulted in $10.9 billion in pledges.
Despite these significant commitments, only $3.4 billion worth of projects have been initiated. Donor financing remains heavily concentrated, with multilateral institutions such as the World Bank, ADB, AIIB, and IDB accounting for 90% of the total pledges.
However, disbursement patterns reveal critical bottlenecks: The World Bank has initiated projects totaling $2.1 billion, while the ADB has operationalized nearly a third of its pledged amount.
The Islamic Development Bank has allocated only $600 million for flood-related activities, re-routing the remaining $3.6 billion to commodity financing under commercial terms. The AIIB has offered limited budgetary support with minimal direct relevance to flood recovery.
The Saudi Fund for Development’s $1 billion is tied to oil financing, not flood recovery, which dramatically reduces the effective recovery funding to approximately $6 billion.
Alarmingly, SRO-2, which covers agriculture and livelihoods—the sectors most severely impacted by the floods—has attracted less than $200 million, a mere 4.5% of its required funding. Given the central role of agriculture in Pakistan’s GDP and employment, this disparity poses long-term economic risks.
The Paris Club countries collectively pledged $799 million, but only 14.6% had been disbursed by August 2024. While countries like France and Japan led with initial commitments, overall delivery remains sluggish.
Germany and Italy have yet to engage meaningfully, and remote, hard-hit districts in Balochistan and Sindh continue to be underserved.
A clear imbalance persists in aid allocation: infrastructure projects primarily receive concessional loans, while critical “soft” sectors like health, social inclusion, and governance are reliant on scarce grants.
