The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Pakistan’s economic growth at 3.6% for the ongoing fiscal year 2025–26. This forecast falls below the Pakistani government’s official target of 4.2%, as reported by The News.
According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook Update, released from its Washington headquarters on Tuesday, Pakistan’s GDP growth for FY2024-25 stood at 2.7%. For the current fiscal year (FY2025-26), the Fund anticipates a moderate improvement, but its projected growth rate of 3.6% remains lower than the government’s official forecast.
Global Economic Outlook and Potential Risks
On the global front, the IMF estimates world economic growth at 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. These projections represent a slight increase from those in the April 2025 Outlook, by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively. This upward revision reflects stronger-than-anticipated factors, including improved financial conditions, fiscal expansion in major economies, and a weaker US dollar.
However, the Fund issued a warning that any rebound in tariff rates, rising fiscal deficits, geopolitical tensions, or prolonged uncertainty could dampen global growth prospects. Conversely, successful trade negotiations and policy stability could provide an upside to growth.
The IMF emphasized that to support recovery and resilience, countries must prioritize predictability, confidence, and structural reforms, while safeguarding financial and price stability.
