Rising geopolitical tensions and armed conflicts worldwide are not only exacting a human toll but are now also significantly impacting the aviation industry, with airlines facing a considerable burden on their operations and profitability. Executives report that carriers are contending with challenges such as missiles and drones, airspace closures, location spoofing, and even the shoot-down of another passenger flight.
With missiles being a prominent feature of contemporary warfare, airlines are incurring escalating costs and losing market share due to cancelled flights and expensive, often short-notice, re-routings. The aviation industry, which prides itself on its safety record, is increasingly investing in data and security planning.
“Flight planning in this kind of environment is extremely difficult,” stated Guy Murray, who leads aviation security at European carrier TUI Airline. “The airline industry thrives on predictability, and the absence of this will always drive greater cost.” With increasing airspace closures around Russia and Ukraine, throughout the Middle East, between India and Pakistan, and in parts of Africa, airlines are left with fewer viable route options.
Mark Zee, founder of OPSGROUP, a membership-based organization that shares flight risk information, noted, “Compared to five years ago, more than half of the countries being overflown on a typical Europe-Asia flight would now need to be carefully reviewed before each flight.” The conflict in the Middle East since October 2023 has compelled commercial aviation to share skies with short-notice barrages of drones and missiles across major flight paths—some of which were reportedly close enough to be observed by pilots and passengers.
Russian airports, including those in Moscow, are now subject to regular brief shutdowns due to drone activity, while interference with navigation systems, known as GPS spoofing or jamming, is surging around political fault lines globally. When hostilities erupted between India and Pakistan last month, the neighboring countries mutually blocked each other’s aircraft from their respective airspaces.
“Airspace should not be used as a retaliatory tool, but it is,” Nick Careen, International Air Transport Association (IATA) senior vice president for operations, safety, and security, informed reporters at the airline body’s annual meeting in New Delhi on Tuesday. Isidre Porqueras, chief operating officer at Indian carrier IndiGo, commented that the recent diversions were undermining efforts to reduce emissions and enhance airline efficiencies.
Aircraft in the Crosshairs
Beyond financial implications, civil aviation’s gravest concern is an aircraft being struck, whether accidentally or intentionally, by weaponry. In December, an Azerbaijan Airlines flight crashed in Kazakhstan, resulting in 38 fatalities. According to Azerbaijan’s president and Reuters sources, the plane was accidentally shot down by Russian air defenses. In October, a cargo plane was shot down in Sudan, killing five people. Aviation risk consultancy Osprey Flight Solutions reports that six commercial aircraft have been shot down, with three near-misses, since 2001.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh emphasized this week that governments must improve information sharing to ensure the security of civil aviation as conflict zones proliferate. Safety statistics utilized by the commercial aviation industry demonstrate a consistent decline in accidents over the past two decades; however, these figures do not encompass security-related incidents, such as being hit by weaponry. IATA stated in February that accidents and incidents linked to conflict zones are a paramount concern for aviation safety, necessitating urgent global coordination.
Re-routing and Safety Considerations
Each airline determines its travel routes based on a complex interplay of government notices, security advisories, and information shared between carriers and states, leading to varying operational policies. The closure of Russian airspace to most Western carriers since the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022 has placed them at a cost disadvantage compared to airlines from regions like China, India, and the Middle East, which continue to utilize shorter northern routes that require less fuel and fewer crew members.
Shifting risk assessments mean that Singapore Airlines’ flight SQ326 from Singapore to Amsterdam has utilized three different routes into Europe in just over a year, according to Flightradar24 tracking data. When reciprocal missile and drone attacks commenced between Iran and Israel in April 2024, the flight began traversing previously avoided Afghanistan instead of Iran. Last month, its route shifted again to circumvent Pakistan’s airspace as conflict escalated between India and Pakistan. Flight SQ326 now reaches Europe via the Persian Gulf and Iraq. Singapore Airlines did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Pilots and flight attendants are also expressing concern about how the complex and evolving nature of risk might compromise their safety. Paul Reuter, vice president of the European Cockpit Association, which represents pilots, stated, “IATA says airlines should decide if it’s safe to fly over conflict zones, not regulators. But history shows commercial pressures can cloud those decisions.” IATA security head Careen affirmed that flight crew typically retain the right to refuse a trip due to concerns about airspace, whether related to weather or conflict zones. “Most airlines, in fact, I would say the vast majority of them, do not want crew on an aircraft if they don’t feel comfortable flying,” he concluded.
