The Shangri-La Dialogue security meeting in Singapore has historically been characterized by U.S.-China rivalry, but Beijing’s relatively subdued presence at the weekend exposed a new faultline: emerging tensions between the U.S. and Europe concerning Asia. Even as he cautioned in a Saturday speech that China posed an “imminent” threat, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made it clear he expected Europeans to prioritize European security as they increased their military budgets.
“We would much prefer that the overwhelming balance of European investment be on that continent…so that as we partner there, which we will continue to do, we’re able to use our comparative advantage as an Indo-Pacific nation to support our partners here,” he stated. Hegseth also noted the absence of his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun, as Beijing instead dispatched a lower-level team of military scholars to the annual event, which attracts top defense officials, diplomats, spies, and arms dealers from around the globe.
Another significant aspect of the event was the presence of high-powered military delegations from India and Pakistan, following four days of intense clashes between the nuclear-armed neighbors that were halted by a ceasefire on May 10. The delegations, in full uniform and adorned with medals and service ribbons, were led by India’s highest-ranking military officer and Pakistan’s chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. They conspicuously avoided interaction in the corridors and meeting halls of the sprawling Shangri-La hotel.
Regarding engagement in Asia, at least some European nations signaled their unwillingness to be swayed by U.S. exhortations. They insisted they would endeavor to remain active in both the Asian and European theaters, citing their deep historical links, vital trade flows, and the intrinsically global nature of modern conflict. Europe’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, emphasized, “It is a good thing we are doing more (in Europe), but what I want to stress is that the security of Europe and the security of the Pacific is very much interlinked.” Kallas further asserted, “If you are worried about China, you should be worried about Russia,” underscoring the importance of Chinese assistance to the Russian war effort in Ukraine and Moscow’s deployment of North Korean soldiers.
France’s Asian Ties
French President Emmanuel Macron firmly maintained that France remains an Indo-Pacific power, referencing its enduring colonial presence in New Caledonia and French Polynesia and the deployment of over 8,000 soldiers across the region. “We are neither China nor the U.S., we don’t want to depend on either of them,” Macron stated at a press conference on Friday, outlining a “third path” coalition between Europe and Asia that aimed to avoid choosing between Beijing and Washington.
“We want to cooperate with both as far as we can, and we can cooperate for growth and prosperity and stability for our people and the world order, and I think this is exactly the same view of a lot of countries and a lot of people of this region,” he added. Beyond the rhetoric, regional military attachés and analysts suggest that European regional presence—and ambitions—may not be easily curtailed. Military deployments are planned over decades rather than months, and both commercial and defense relationships extend back for decades, some of which are only rarely publicly acknowledged.
The visit of a British aircraft carrier to Singapore later this month is part of a program first mentioned by then-Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson in 2017 to underscore British support for freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. The carrier visit partly reflects Britain’s commitments under the 54-year-old Five-Power Defence Arrangement that links its military with counterparts in Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, and New Zealand. British ties with Australia have been further bolstered by the recent three-way AUKUS submarine and advanced technology sharing agreement struck with the U.S.—a move that could see British submarines visiting Western Australia.
According to International Institute of Strategic Studies data, Singapore maintains 200 personnel in France operating 12 of its light combat aircraft, while Britain also has a jungle training camp and helicopters in Brunei, and a 1,200-strong Gurkha battalion. A report last month by the London-based IISS highlighted European defense firms’ long-standing and expanding defense ties to Asia, even in the face of competition, particularly from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as regional budgets rise. “European companies, including Airbus, Damen, Naval Group and Thales, have a long-standing presence in Southeast Asia, and other European actors have established themselves in the market in the last decade, including Italy’s Fincantieri and Sweden’s Saab,” the IISS study noted. Saab is reportedly close to securing a deal with U.S. ally Thailand to supply its Gripen fighters, outcompeting Lockheed Martin’s F-16s. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has reported that Asian defense spending rose 46% in the decade to 2024, reaching $629 billion.
For Finnish officials, at least, Hegseth’s remarks resonated; for Helsinki, given the country’s long Russian border, Moscow, rather than the Indo-Pacific, looms larger. “When Europe’s defense is in a good shape, then you will have resources to do something more,” Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen told Reuters. “But now all the European countries must do their main focus on European defense so that the United States can do a bigger share in the Indo-Pacific area,” Hakkanen concluded.
