Pakistan’s headline inflation cooled sharply to 0.3% year-on-year (YoY) in April 2025, a significant drop from 17.3% a year earlier and 0.7% in March. This decline was driven by broad-based reductions across food and energy categories, as reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
According to brokerage firm Arif Habib Limited, inflation has fallen to an all-time low level.
Data published on Friday revealed a month-on-month (MoM) decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 0.8%, contrasting with a 0.9% increase in March.
Urban inflation eased to 0.5% annually, while rural inflation dipped by 0.1%. On a MoM basis, urban CPI fell by 0.7% and rural CPI slid by 1.0%.
Inflation has shown a consistent downward trend. During the period from July to April (10MFY25), inflation was recorded at 4.73%, significantly lower than the 25.97% recorded during the same period in FY24.
The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), a key measure of essential item prices, also registered a 3.2% year-on-year decline, deepening from a 2.3% fall in March. On a monthly basis, the SPI fell by 1.7%.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages experienced substantial price declines. Perishable food items plunged by 26.7% year-on-year, while wheat prices were down by 36% and onion prices tumbled by nearly 75%. Conversely, some staple foods like pulse moong and butter saw increases of 29.8% and 24.5%, respectively.
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation also showed relief, falling by 2.2% year-on-year in April, compared to a 1.6% drop in the previous month. The WPI slipped by 1.3% from March, when it had recorded a 0.3% increase.
Core inflation — excluding food and energy — eased to 7.4% in urban areas and 9.0% in rural regions, down from 8.2% and 10.2% in March, respectively. However, on a monthly basis, core inflation edged higher, with urban prices rising by 1.3% and rural prices by 0.9%.
The category of housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuels saw a 2.6% YoY decrease, with electricity charges alone dropping by 26.6%. Non-food categories displayed mixed trends: education costs surged by 10.9% annually, while transport costs fell by 3.9%.
The trimmed mean core inflation rate, considered an indicator of underlying inflation trends, declined to 3.8% in urban areas and 3.3% in rural areas year-on-year. Month-on-month, it remained steady at 0.3% in urban areas and fell by 0.1% in rural regions.
