The results of Ireland’s general elections are currently being counted, with early exit polls suggesting a tight three-way race between the leading parties. Left-wing nationalists Sinn Féin are leading with 21.1% of the vote, slightly ahead of the two centre-right parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, which garnered 21% and 19.5%, respectively.
The counting process, which began at 09:00 GMT on Saturday, is expected to continue throughout the day, with final results likely to take several days due to Ireland’s proportional representation system. Under this system, votes from eliminated candidates are redistributed in multiple rounds of counting, making it difficult to determine a clear winner immediately.
If the exit poll is accurate, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, who are coalition partners in the outgoing government, may retain power, but would need to form alliances with smaller parties to secure a majority of 88 seats in the 160-seat Dáil Éireann (Ireland’s parliament). Political analysts, including Eoin O’Malley from Dublin City University, have noted that the long-time dominant parties are likely to stay in control, but their path to power will require compromise.
Sinn Féin’s President Mary Lou McDonald remains hopeful, insisting that her party could unseat the centre-right coalition and bring about significant change. She described the election as “a historic day” for the opportunity to elect a new government.
Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Simon Harris, leader of Fine Gael, was solidly positioned when he called the snap election just three weeks ago. However, his campaign faltered after a viral video surfaced, showing him dismissing a care worker on the campaign trail. Despite this setback, Harris remained a prominent figure in the election, which was dominated by debates over housing, cost-of-living issues, public spending, and immigration.
Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil emphasized their pro-business and pro-European Union positions, arguing that returning them to power would ensure stability, especially in the face of global uncertainties. Ireland’s economic model, which heavily relies on foreign direct investment and corporate tax revenues from U.S. tech and pharma giants, faces challenges due to concerns about potential tariffs and tax repatriations under the incoming U.S. administration.
Sinn Féin, which won the popular vote in 2020 but was unable to form a coalition, saw its support dip over the past year due to its progressive stance on social issues and migration policy. However, its campaign, which focused heavily on housing reform, has gained traction, positioning the party as the only true alternative to the long-standing Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil coalition.
As the counting progresses, all eyes are on Sinn Féin’s ability to capitalize on its lead and whether it can form the necessary coalitions to challenge the dominance of the traditional centre-right parties.
