A ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel has been in effect since Wednesday, marking a significant shift after over a year of cross-border attacks and months of escalating violence. The 60-day ceasefire, brokered by the United States and France, was intended to provide a reprieve from the destruction caused by months of fighting, particularly in southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburb, Dahiyeh. Despite the fragile peace, reports from both sides indicate violations of the agreement, raising questions about its longevity.
Under the terms of the ceasefire, Hezbollah is expected to withdraw north of the Litani River, and Israel is to pull back to the south of the Blue Line. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the United Nations peacekeeping force (UNIFIL) are tasked with monitoring the situation in southern Lebanon. However, Israel’s actions have raised concerns about the ceasefire’s stability. Israeli forces have reportedly violated the ceasefire by launching attacks within Lebanese territory, specifically in the Sidon region and the village of Markaba, despite the agreement forbidding such operations. Additionally, Israel has imposed curfews and restricted movement in southern Lebanon, further complicating the situation.
Hezbollah, which has refrained from military retaliation despite these violations, has reiterated its commitment to the ceasefire. Secretary-General Naim Qassem expressed confidence in the coordination between Hezbollah and the Lebanese army to uphold the truce. However, he also stated that no major issues were anticipated in implementing the agreement, suggesting that Hezbollah is prioritizing stability over further conflict. The group has even described the ceasefire as a “victory” and claims that it succeeded in maintaining its resilience despite Israel’s goals to dismantle its military capabilities.
The ceasefire comes after intense fighting that has left extensive destruction in southern Lebanon, particularly in border villages. Thousands of people were displaced, with the World Bank estimating $2.8 billion in damages to homes and infrastructure. As residents return to their homes, there is an underlying fear that the ceasefire may not last. Many Lebanese have been left wary after previous attacks, with some residents in the Khandaq al-Ghamik neighborhood of Beirut recounting the destruction of their homes just before the truce was enacted.
Despite the toll the war has taken on Hezbollah, including the loss of many fighters and key military assets, analysts suggest that the group’s main focus now is on rebuilding and addressing the humanitarian needs of the displaced Shia community. Hezbollah is unlikely to launch a new front against Israel as it prioritizes the welfare of its people, especially as rebuilding efforts continue. Analysts agree that retaliation at this stage would be detrimental to Lebanon, which is already grappling with the aftermath of the conflict.
The long-term future of Hezbollah is uncertain. The group faces significant challenges, including the loss of key leaders and the need for internal restructuring. While it remains a powerful force in the region, it must adapt to a new reality, focusing on the welfare of its community and its survival amidst the shifting dynamics in Lebanon and the wider Middle East.
