Pipeline and Cable Attacks Raise Concerns Over Escalating International Conflict
A series of unexplained incidents involving damage to underwater pipelines and cables in the Baltic Sea has raised suspicions of sabotage. As geopolitical tensions grow in the region, particularly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, these incidents could point to a new phase in underwater warfare.
Rising Incidents of Sabotage in the Baltic Sea
Two fibre-optic cables in the Baltic Sea were severed on Sunday and Monday, leading to concerns over a Chinese cargo vessel that passed through the area shortly before the attacks. The Danish Navy is currently monitoring the vessel, which departed from Russia’s Ust-Luga port and traveled through the Kattegat Strait between Denmark and Sweden. Swedish police have labeled the vessel as “of interest,” and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has called for a thorough investigation.
The severing of the cables is the latest in a series of similar incidents that have occurred over the past two years, raising questions about the role of underwater sabotage in international conflict.
Past Attacks: Nord Stream Pipeline Explosion and Balticconnector Damage
The Baltic Sea has become a focal point for escalating geopolitical tensions. In September 2022, the Nord Stream gas pipelines, which run from Russia to Germany, were rocked by explosions. The blasts caused significant damage to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, leaving three of the four pipes inoperable. While Western officials accused Russia of orchestrating the sabotage, Moscow pointed to the United States and its allies, and some reports suggested pro-Ukrainian actors may have been involved.
Just over a year later, in October 2023, the Balticconnector gas pipeline, which connects Finland and Estonia, was also damaged in an undersea incident. This damage was accompanied by the rupture of nearby data cables. Finnish and Estonian investigators initially suspected a Chinese cargo ship, which allegedly dragged its anchor along the seabed, though they did not confirm if the damage was intentional.
Why is the Baltic Sea a Hotspot for Underwater Sabotage?
The Baltic Sea is a strategically important body of water, with a shallow and narrow basin, surrounded by eight NATO countries and bordering Russia. It is home to key naval and military assets, including Russia’s Baltic Fleet based in Kaliningrad and the strategically important port city of St. Petersburg.
Professor Tormod Heier from the Norwegian Defence University College notes that since the Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—joined NATO in 2004, the region has become a focal point of tension between Russia and the West. The alliance’s proximity to Russian borders, combined with Russia’s growing assertiveness, has turned the Baltic Sea into a potential flashpoint for conflict. The region’s geopolitical significance has only increased since Finland and Sweden joined NATO, further complicating the security situation.
Could These Incidents Be Sabotage?
While it remains unclear whether the recent pipeline and cable incidents were acts of sabotage, experts suggest that it is highly probable. Underwater sabotage could be part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy—a tactic that combines conventional and unconventional methods to destabilize regions without crossing the threshold for outright war.
Hybrid warfare tactics have long been employed in the Baltic Sea, ranging from GPS jamming in the Baltic states to Russian spy planes entering Swedish airspace. Heier explains that the advantage of hybrid warfare lies in its ambiguity—these actions are difficult to attribute directly to any one actor, which allows them to remain within the “grey zone” of international conflict. This makes it easier for nations to engage in disruptive actions without triggering direct military retaliation.
The Role of Hybrid Warfare in Modern Geopolitics
Hybrid warfare is a growing concern as nations seek to gain influence in volatile regions like the Baltic Sea. Sabotaging pipelines and cables could be seen as a low-cost way to create chaos and send a message without escalating to full-scale military confrontation. The region’s status as a geopolitical fault line makes it an ideal testing ground for such tactics, where actions can remain ambiguous enough to avoid clear attribution and the onset of all-out war.
Conclusion: A New Phase of Underwater Warfare?
As incidents of underwater sabotage continue to emerge in the Baltic Sea, the question arises whether this represents a new form of warfare. Whether attributed to state actors or non-state entities, these actions could signify a shift in how geopolitical power is contested. With the rise of hybrid warfare, the Baltic Sea is becoming an increasingly important theatre for international tensions and confrontations.
