US: Countries in South Asia, like those in the rest of the world, are keeping an eye on the US presidential election, looking out for their interests, and getting ready to change policies depending on who wins on November 5.
According to analysts, the major nations of the region—Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan—are divided about who they think should be the next president of the United States; however, they are all still willing to interact with whoever comes out on top.
On the other hand, Michael Kugelman, an authority on Washington’s relationships with South Asian nations, claims that US policies are likely to be in the “continuation” category, with neither administration employing “a very sharp strategic lens to South Asia.”
He stated, “However, I do think that you would see a sharper lens, relative speaking, from Harris than from Trump.”
According to Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute, who spoke with Anadolu, the United States will “investigate possibilities for infrastructure investments in South Asia, working with India for sure to counter China, trying to step up varying levels of cooperation on security levels… especially through maritime cooperation,” Kugelman stated.
According to Kugelman, Afghanistan and the Taliban are leaning toward Trump because they want a US president who will not give them “a hard time.”
He stated that Harris was a member of an administration that supported and enforced the decision to pull troops out of Afghanistan during Trump’s previous tenure.
He thinks that a Trump administration might be more popular with the Taliban government.
“With regard to Afghanistan, I believe the Taliban will be content with whoever wins, but they may be more inclined to desire Trump’s return. However, in the end, it might be able to live with whoever wins the election, he stated.
He explained that if Trump became president, he would be less likely to focus on the situation in Afghanistan regarding human rights and education for women.
He stated, “The key question for the Taliban becomes which president would be more likely to want to look into the possibility of scaling up assistance to Afghanistan, particularly assistance for development, with Trump more inclined to look into financing opportunities.” Trump was the president who was more likely to look into financing opportunities.
He did, however, warn that Trump would not want to begin assisting the Afghan government in violation of US sanctions at the same time.
Who would India prefer to be president?
According to Kugelman, there is strong bipartisan support in Washington for close ties with New Delhi, which gives India, the largest economy in South Asia and a key ally of the United States, some level of comfort in these elections.
He added that cooperating with India to combat China is a strategic necessity.
Kugelman is of the opinion that if Trump is elected president, the relationship between the United States and India could undergo a shift. He cites a number of significant issues that have come up in cooperation over the course of the past few years, such as technology, clean energy, and climate change.
He asserted that technology transfers may be extremely challenging due to Trump’s tough stance on export controls.
The US-India relationship has become heavily reliant on technology transfers. Those are getting a lot more attention now than ever before. According to the analyst, “I think that could cause some major challenges for US-India tech cooperation if Trump were to come back and keep that hard line on export controls.”
Trade is also a concern because, according to Kugelman, despite Trump’s support for commercial ties, he has long been dissatisfied with India’s tariff policies.
On the campaign trail, Trump has spoken relatively little about India, but what he has said has focused on India’s tariff policies. He has referred to India as an abuser and is referring to its tariff policies, which is extremely troubling for India,” he stated.
“The Indian government would be concerned about Trump returning because there is a possibility that this could result in significant changes to the nature of the relationship, which could cause some tensions in their relationship,” the article states.
At the same time, Kugelman is of the opinion that New Delhi would prefer to see Trump return because of his foreign policy, particularly in relation to Russia.
Because of Russia’s close ties to India, relations between the United States and India have become somewhat constrained. He stated, “Trump has taken a more measured stance toward Russia and the war in Ukraine.”
He stated that India would continue to feel the US’s pressure regarding this partnership with Russia if Harris were to win the presidency.
He continued, “In the event that Trump or Harris become president, India would have reasons to be both concerned and assured, so basically they could live with it.”
Kugelman stated that both Harris and Trump could exert pressure on New Delhi in light of the escalating tensions between Canada and India resulting from the murder of a dissident Sikh activist on Canadian soil.
They were unable to let it go. They would put India under pressure to investigate. Kugelman elaborated, “There would be continued efforts on the part of the US to balance its alliance with Canada with its strategic partnership with India, and try to throw its support behind Canada’s efforts to push for an investigation, while at the same time being very careful about how it goes about its relationship with India.” This would be the case in the event that Harris were to arrive.
“If Trump were to run for president again, he would have shown more skepticism toward the idea of alliances in the past, and he may not feel as compelled to ensure that level of solidarity with Canada over its own allegations,” the article states.
According to Kugelman, Pakistan is not a major US policy priority at this time. The relationship between Pakistan and the US “could change in a big way if Trump wins.”
He stated, “I think the government in Pakistan might think, and rightly so, that the current dimensions of the relationship… could change in a big way if Trump were to come back.” He was referring to the possibility of a Trump return.
However, he stated that in the event that Trump returns, issues such as clean energy cooperation and climate change, which have grown to be a significant part of the relationship with Pakistan, will not be prioritized.
