US television networks are getting ready to fill the results void, which could last for weeks, against the backdrop of unprecedented pressure to avoid mistakes and a flood of misinformation.
In 2020, it required four tense days for President Joe Biden’s triumph to be reported.
Experts and observers will once more be waiting for the jigsaw of states to be declared for the Democrats or Republicans one at a time, along with their electoral college votes—270 are required for victory—this year.
According to Edison Research executive vice president Joe Lenski, “it’s all going to come down to seven really competitive swing states, and in a lot of those states, we’re not going to have sufficient data to make a projection until either late that evening, early the next day, or in some cases, it might be days after the election.”
For the ABC, CBS, NBC News, and CNN networks, his organization will conduct exit polls, make projections, and count votes.
In addition to having a complicated electoral system, regional voting and counting procedures differ.
Lenski cites Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two crucial swing states, which do not begin counting early votes until November 5, which is Election Day.
Since there haven’t been official results in weeks, the TV news networks have to call the states for either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.
The real pressure will be on the network decision desks, teams of statisticians and analysts who will provide anchors with estimates based on the inconsistent first results, not on presenters and pundits behind the opulent TV studios.
‘Tremendous pressure’ Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University and a former member of the NBC decision desk, stated, “The stakes are very high […] there is tremendous pressure to capture viewers by providing them with information as quickly as it is available, but the greatest risk is sacrificing accuracy for speed.”
Fox News, the most popular conservative channel in the United States, called Arizona for Vice President Joe Biden on November 3, 2020, just a few hours after the polls closed. This dealt a serious blow to Trump’s chances.
The Trump camp was enraged by the announcement, which other media later confirmed several days later.
The networks’ U-turns in 2000, when Al Gore, a Democratic candidate, was called to Florida before the election, are perhaps the most well-known.
The media are relying on more advanced analytics that will utilize not only exit polls but also surveys of early voters in order to avoid a repeat of the embarrassing incident that damaged credibility.
Ben Ginsberg, an election lawyer, described the “red mirage” of 2020 as “political posturing,” referring to the apparent Republican lead that diminished as the totals included popular with Democrats mail-in ballots.
In an editorial published in The New York Times, Ginsberg added, “What’s still unclear is whether a Republican push this year to have their voters cast ballots early will change this pattern.”
Channels will attempt to maintain accuracy and transparency in the face of an anticipated tsunami of false information about alleged electoral fraud during the marathon race to a result.
John King, CNN’s chief national correspondent, will return to its “magic wall” to demonstrate his encyclopedic knowledge of previous votes by visually displaying trends.
From November 5 onward, NBC News has published a number of articles that provide an in-depth explanation of the method by which data from more than 100,000 polling places will be gathered.
In addition, they have provided a description of the measures that will be taken to accurately project the outcomes of 610 polls, including elections for the Senate and House of Representatives.
“Our partner news organizations provide their viewers with more data than ever before,” says the statement. Lenski stated, “There is more analysis, more maps, and more detail than ever before.”
Ginsberg wrote in a column, “Delays themselves are not evidence of a conspiracy.”
“Dismiss it as political posturing if either candidate declares victory before the votes are counted.”
