United Estate Election 2024 Opinion polls conducted on Oct. 22 by FiveThirtyEight show that Republican former President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris are in a close race for the presidency, with 49% and 51% of the vote, respectively.
Since she succeeded President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee on July 21, Harris has consistently held slight advantages of around 2%, despite the fact that opinion polls of the presidential race have always been close.
An Oct. 18 forecast by FiveThirtyEight’s G. Elliott Morris found that Harris is actually now trailing by up to 4% when analyzing opinion polls from the seven battleground states that pundits say will determine the results on Nov. 5. The Trump campaign appears to be gaining momentum.
The narrative continues below the advertisement, which reads, “For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast… Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris.” Our model predicts that Trump has a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes as of Oct. 18 at 3 p.m. Eastern. The model allows Harris a 48-in-100 opportunity.”
However, those who are keeping an eye on predictive markets, also known as “event futures markets,” where individuals can bet or purchase “yes” or “no” shares on a proposition that something will or will not occur, claim that they were aware of this trend at least two weeks before opinion polls revealed it.
New York-based KalshiEx LLC’s decisions market, which in an Oct. 2 government court administering turned into the principal U.S.- based prescient market permitted to legitimately offer races related occasions fates to purchasers in the US, shows Trump driving in each of the seven landmark states since the recommendations were posted Oct. 3.
