HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — The latest forecast suggests that this hurricane season could be notably active, with a higher likelihood of storm impacts in southeast Texas compared to previous years.
Colorado State University (CSU) not only predicts the number of storms but also estimates their potential paths, including the probability of a named storm affecting specific areas.
According to the CSU report, Texas ranks fifth in the likelihood of named storm impacts, following Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Statewide, Texas has an 80% chance of experiencing a named storm impact, nearly 20% higher than the historical average.
Closer to home, the probability ranges from 45% to 51% for Galveston, Brazoria, Chambers, and Harris counties, an increase of about 16%.
The likelihood of a hurricane impact in Texas is 54%, up 18% from the average. In southeast Texas, the chance ranges from 25% to 30%, which is about 10% higher than the historical average.
“A prediction of 11 hurricanes is the highest we’ve ever made in June,” explained CSU graduate research assistant Nick Mesa. “Sea surface temperatures and other indicators of Atlantic warmth are at record levels, typically seen in September.”
Researchers warn that major hurricanes could be particularly devastating. Statewide, the probability of a major hurricane is 25%, nearly 10% above the historical average. In southeast Texas, the chance ranges from 7% to 9%, which is about 3% higher than average.
“Those elevated numbers are certainly concerning,” Mesa said. “Our June forecast aims to provide ample lead time for preparation. It’s better to be proactive than reactive.”
While researchers can forecast general estimates, they can’t predict the exact locations where storms might hit. They advise staying informed and having a plan and kit ready in case a storm approaches.
