HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — After a beautiful Monday, storm chances return Tuesday. While many will stay dry, any thunderstorm that develops could bring severe weather with up to golf ball size hail and damaging wind gusts over 60 mph.
The day will start off cool and mostly dry with lows in the upper 50s. Despite all the clouds in the sky, temperatures will still warm into the upper 70s during the afternoon. Most of the daylight hours will stay fairly dry until a weather disturbance rolls in from the west during the evening. While the potential is certainly there for severe thunderstorms, it is possible a “cap” of stable air aloft will hold and prevent thunderstorm development. The cap is supposed to hold strong over Houston all day but weaken west of Houston after 3 p.m. If thunderstorms do develop west of Houston by 6 p.m., then they could track into the Bayou City during the evening hours.
While there is low confidence this initial disturbance will generate any rain, there is higher confidence a second disturbance arriving overnight will bring a round of strong thunderstorms. This thunderstorm complex will pop up over the Hill Country during the evening and then blow toward Houston around midnight Wednesday.
Where is the greatest risk of severe weather?
The greatest risk of severe weather is northwest of Houston. That’s where the atmosphere will be more unstable, but even then, it’s only a 15% chance the storms will be severe. Any thunderstorms that manage to reach Houston will have to battle the cap of stable air and likely weaken below severe thresholds.
Are there any more rain chances this week?
Yes! Another disturbance rolling in Wednesday night will push a cool front through Southeast Texas Thursday morning. While Wednesday only has a 20% chance for rain, there’s a 40% chance for thunderstorms during the Thursday morning commute hours. Another upper-level storm arrives Saturday with another cool front, and you guessed it, another chance for thunderstorms.
What does the rest of the weekend look like?
The front arriving Saturday will bring a strong northwest wind to help dry out the atmosphere for Sunday. So while your Saturday plans could be impacted by rain, we are predicting nothing but sunshine at this time for Sunday! Both days temperatures should dip into the 50s for morning lows and warm into the 70s for afternoon highs.
