Policy Shift Following North Korea’s Involvement
President Joe Biden has reversed his stance on restricting Ukraine’s use of U.S. missiles in Russian territory, allowing Ukraine to fire long-range ATACMS missiles into deeper parts of Russia. This decision was influenced by Russia’s deployment of North Korean soldiers to the conflict, particularly in the Kursk region, and was compounded by the recent election victory of Donald Trump, who has been critical of U.S. support for Ukraine. This shift aims to bolster Ukraine’s defense and prevent any potential reduction in U.S. assistance under a future Trump administration.
Trump’s Election Impact on U.S. Strategy
Biden had previously resisted Ukraine’s requests to use ATACMS missiles, which can strike targets deep within Russia, fearing escalation and the risk of drawing NATO into direct conflict with a nuclear-armed Russia. However, the election of Trump, who has expressed doubts about continued U.S. military aid to Ukraine, intensified the urgency of solidifying a more robust Ukraine policy before Trump’s potential inauguration. This policy shift could be seen as a measure to “Trump-proof” U.S. support for Ukraine in case the future administration pulls back on aid.
Strategic Response to North Korean Troops in Kursk
The arrival of North Korean forces in Russia, particularly in the Kursk region where Ukrainian forces have held territory since August, marked a significant escalation. U.S. officials now view this as a direct challenge, prompting the U.S. to relax restrictions on Ukrainian missile use. The policy change is seen as a means to curb Russian and North Korean efforts to reclaim Ukrainian-held territory in Kursk, with the potential for further escalation being acknowledged by the Biden administration.
First Strike Under New Policy
Following the change, Ukraine launched its first long-range missile strike using U.S.-supplied ATACMS, targeting a Russian arms depot over 110 km inside Russian territory. This strike, along with a subsequent missile attack using British Storm Shadow missiles, demonstrates the shift in U.S. policy and the growing international support for Ukraine to directly target Russian military infrastructure.
Wider Implications of the Shift
While Biden’s decision to ease missile restrictions is significant, there is concern that it may come too late to change the course of the war. However, it is hoped that it will help Ukraine defend critical regions, such as Kursk, where Russian-North Korean forces are attempting to push Ukrainian troops out. The Biden administration has also taken steps to strengthen Ukraine’s position, including approving the use of anti-personnel mines and allowing U.S. defense contractors to repair and maintain U.S. weapons inside Ukraine.
Strategic Intent and Congressional Reaction
The Biden administration’s decision to relax missile usage rules appears focused on limiting Russia’s ability to push Ukrainian forces from Kursk and sending a strong message to both Russia and North Korea. While there are concerns about further escalation, U.S. officials argue that this shift is a necessary step to maintain Ukraine’s defense capabilities and prevent additional Russian territorial gains. Congressional aides believe the new policy is specifically aimed at the Kursk region, indicating that it is a targeted response rather than a blanket change in U.S. policy toward Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles.
