The world’s ozone layer is making steady progress toward recovery despite a brief setback caused by a volcanic eruption in the South Pacific, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This improvement follows global efforts to phase out ozone-depleting chemicals.
Current projections suggest that the ozone layer will return to its 1980 levels by around 2066 over Antarctica, 2045 over the Arctic, and 2040 for the rest of the world, the WMO reported.
The volcanic eruption near Tonga in early 2022 temporarily accelerated ozone depletion over Antarctica, driven by increased atmospheric water vapor. However, overall losses were limited, and the long-term recovery remains on track.
The ozone layer shields the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation, which can lead to skin cancer and other health risks. The success of the 1989 Montreal Protocol, which phased out chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone-depleting substances, is credited with enabling the recovery of the ozone layer.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres praised the Montreal Protocol as a “powerful symbol of hope” in an era of strained multilateral cooperation.
While CFCs have largely been replaced by hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which do not harm the ozone but are potent greenhouse gases, efforts are now underway to phase down HFC production. The 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol aims to reduce HFCs and could prevent around 0.5 degrees Celsius of global warming by 2100.
China, the world’s largest HFC producer, is working to reduce its output, cutting manufacturing quotas and tackling illegal production. Despite these efforts, China’s environment ministry acknowledges the country faces significant challenges in phasing down HFCs, which are widely used in industries struggling to find alternatives.